Monday, May 5, 2008

The status of global wind power in 2007

US, China & Spain lead world market

In its best year yet, the global wind industry installed over 20,000 MW in 2007. This development was lead by the US, China and Spain, and it brought the world-wide installed capacity to 94,123 MW. This is an increase of 31% compared with the 2006 market, and represents an overall increase in global installed capacity of about 27%.

"The growth rates we are experiencing in wind energy continue to exceed our most optimistic expectations,” said GWEC Secretary General Steve Sawyer. “Globally, wind energy has become a mainstream energy source and an important player in the world’s energy markets, and it now contributes to the energy mix in more than 70 countries across the globe.

The top five countries in terms of installed capacity are Germany (22.3 GW), the US (16.8 GW), Spain (15.1 GW), India (8 GW) and China (6.1 GW). In terms of economic value, the global wind market in 2007 was worth about 25bn EUR or 37bn US$ in new generating equipment.

US market continues its boom

The US reported a record 5,244 MW installed in 2007, more than double the 2006 figure, accounting for about 30% of the country’s new power-production capacity in 2007. Overall US wind power generating capacity grew by 45% in 2007, with total installed capacity now standing at 16.8 GW.

American wind farms will generate around 48 bn kWh of electricity in 2008, just over 1% of U.S. electricity supply, powering the equivalent of over 4.5 million homes.

In 2007, 34 US states were producing electricity with wind power. The states with the most cumulative installed wind power capacity are: Texas (4,356 MW), California (2,439 MW), Minnesota (1,299 MW), Iowa (1,273 MW) and Washington (1,163 MW).

It is expected that the US will overtake Germany as the leader on wind energy by the end of 2009. AWEA’s initial estimates indicate that another 5GW of new wind capacity will be installed in 2008. Developers report that with strong demand for wind power across the country, wind turbines are sold out for the year. However, AWEA projects that with more companies entering the market, more turbines will become available. The pace of growth in 2008 and beyond is expected to largely depend, not on turbine availability, but on the timing and duration of an extension of the federal production tax credit (PTC), which is due to expire at the end of 2008.

"This is the third consecutive year of record-setting growth, establishing wind power as one of the largest sources of new electricity supply for the country,” said AWEA Executive Director Randall Swisher. “This remarkable and accelerating growth is driven by strong demand, favorable economics, and a period of welcome relief from the on-again, off-again, boom-and-bust cycle of the federal production tax credit (PTC) for wind power.”

"The extension of the production tax credit (PTC) is urgently needed to protect tens of thousands of U.S. manufacturing and construction jobs and create tens of thousands more, and to keep investment flowing into one of the fastestgrowing and brightest sectors of our economy: renewable electricity," he adds.

China sees doubling of annual market - again

China added 3,449 MW of wind energy capacity during 2007, representing market growth of 156% over 2006, and now ranks fifth in total installed wind energy capacity with over 6,000 MW at the end of 2007. However, experts estimate that this is just the beginning, and that the real growth in China is yet to come. Based on current growth rates, the Chinese Renewable Energy Industry Association (CREIA)forecasts a capacity of around 50,000 MW by 2015. The regions with the best wind regimes are located mainly along the South-East coast and Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Gansu Province’s Hexi Corridor and in some parts of North-East China, North-West China, Northern China and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

The wind manufacturing industry in China is booming. While in the past, imported wind turbines dominated the Chinese market, this is changing rapidly as the growing wind power market and the clear policy direction have encouraged domestic production.

At the end of 2007, they were 40 Chinese manufacturers involved in wind energy, accounting for about 56% of the equipment installed during the year, up from 41% in 2006.

“This percentage is expected to increase substantially in the future. Total domestic manufacturing capacity is now about 5,000 MW, and is expected to reach 10-12 GW by 2010,”
predicts GWEC President Prof. Arthouros Zervos. Established major Chinese manufacturers are Goldwind, Sinovel Windtec, Windey and Dongfeng Electrical.

While in 2006, only about 400 MW of new capacity was manufactured by Chinese manufacturers, in 2007, the top two Chinese companies (Gold Wind and Sinovel) alone accounted for 1,460 MW of the new installed capacity,representing about 42% of the annual market. This compares to only 37% provided by the top three foreign manufacturers (Gamesa, Vestas and GE).

National growth inconsistent in Europe, Spain leading the way

The capacity of new wind turbines brought on line across Europe last year was 8,662 MW. Total wind power capacity installed by the end of 2007 reached 57,135 MW, which will avoid about 90 million tonnes of CO2 annually and produce 119 TWh in an average wind year. Wind energy is now increasing more than any other power technology in Europe, making up 40% of total new power installations in 2007, according to EWEA.

The big surprise in the European market was Spain with 3,522 MW of new capacity installed in 2007, the highest amount of any European country ever, earning it second place globally after the US. Total installed wind energy capacity now stands at over 15 GW in Spain. There was also sustained growth in France with 888 MW of added capacity to reach 2,454 MW and Italy, with 603 MW added for a total of 2,726 MW. The new Member States performed well and increased installed capacity by 60%, with Poland, the most successful, reaching a total of 276 MW. The Czech Republic installed 63 MW, its best year ever, and Bulgaria 34 MW.

Nevertheless, a handful of markets pulled in the opposite direction, including Germany, whose annual market shrank by 25% compared to 2006. Portugal and the UK also slumped. As a result, the overall annual market growth in Europe in 2007 of 11% was not what the industry had hoped for.

Majority of new installations in 2007 outside of Europe

While Europe remains the leading market for wind energy, new installations represented just 43% of the global total, down from nearly 75% in 2004. For the first time in decades, more than 50% of the annual wind market was outside Europe, and this trend is likely to continue into the future.

While Europe, North America and Asia continue to see the most important additions to their wind energy capacity, the Middle East/North Africa region increased its wind power installations by 42%, reaching 538 MW at the end of 2007. New capacity was added in Egypt, Morocco and Iran.

Growth in the Pacific region was led by New Zealand with 151 MW in new capacity, which nearly doubled the country’s total installations, reaching 322 MW. While Australia had an exceptionally weak year with only 7 MW of new installations, the change in government at the end of 2007 spurs hopes for a brighter future for wind energy. Within hours of being sworn in to office, the new Labour Prime Minister Kevin Rudd signed the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, and the new government is now making good on its promise of a target of 20% power production by renewables by 2020. This is likely to have positive long-term impacts for wind energy development on the continent.




© GWEC

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