GWEC is predicting the global wind market to grow by over 155% from its current size to reach 240 GW of total installed capacity by the year 2012. This would represent an addition of 146 GW in 5 years, equaling an investment of over 180bn EUR (277 bn US$, both in 2007 value). The electricity produced by wind energy will reach over 500 TWh in 2012 (up from 200 TWh in 2007), accounting for around 3% of global electricity production (up from just over 1% in 2007).
The main areas of growth during this period will be North America and Asia, and more specifically the US and China.
This forecast exceeds previous estimates by GWEC, and the total installed capacity for 2010 has been corrected upwards to reach 171.9 GW (from 149.5 GW). These figures also lie above GWEC’s most ambitious scenario as outlined in the Global Wind Energy Outlook in 2006, which forecast a total global installed capacity of 221 GW in 2012, i.e. 19.3 GW below the current estimate.
The reasons for this adjustment are twofold: Firstly, both the US and the Chinese market have been growing and will continue to grow at a much faster rate than expected even a year ago. Secondly, the emergence of significant manufacturing capacity in China will have a more important impact on the growth of the global markets than originally thought. While tight production capacity is going to remain the main limiting factor of further market growth, machines ‘made in China’ will help take some of the strain out of the current supply situation.
The average growth rates during this five year period in terms of total installed capacity are expected to be 20.6%, compared with 23.4% during 2003-2007. In 2012, Europe will continue to host the largest wind energy capacity, with the total reaching 102 GW, followed by Asia with 66 GW and North America with 61.3 GW.
The additions in installed capacity every year are predicted to grow from 20 GW in 2007 to 36.1 MW in 2012, with an average growth rate of 12.4%. Considering that annual markets have been increasing by an average of 24.7% over the last 5 year, growth could be much stronger also in the future, were it not for continuing supply chain difficulties which considerably limit the growth of annual markets for the next two years. This problem should be overcome by 2010, and along with the development of the offshore market, growth rates are expected to recover in the next decade.
Asia is predicted to overtake Europe as the biggest annual market, with as much as 12.5 GW of new wind generating capacity installed during the year 2012, up from 5.4 GW in 2007. This growth will be mainly led by China, which has since 2004 doubled its total capacity every year, thereby consistently exceeding even the most optimistic predictions.
By 2010, China is expected to be the biggest national annual market globally. This development is underpinned by a rapidly growing number of domestic manufacturers operating in the Chinese market, delivering home made turbines to large scale wind energy projects. Already in 2007, 40 domestic suppliers supplied 56% of the new installations in the domestic market, up from 41% in 2006.
While China will emerge as the continental leader in Asia, sustained growth is also foreseen in India, while other markets such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will also contribute to the development of wind energy on the continent.
The European market will by 2012 have fallen to third place in terms of annual installations (10.3 GW), behind North America (10.5 GW). Overall, this means that over 71% of new installations will occur outside of Europe in 2012, up from 28% in 2004 and 57% in 2007. While in terms of total installed capacity, Europe will continue to be the biggest regional market, its share will have fallen to 42.4%.
The large scale development of offshore wind energy is further delayed and will only start to have a significant impact on European market growth towards the end of the time period under consideration. However, it is expected that offshore development will lend new momentum to growth in Europe during the next decade.
In Europe, Germany and Spain will remain the leading markets, but their relative weight will decrease as a larger number of national markets emerge on the scene. While the spectacular growth of the Spanish market in 2007 with over 3.5 GW of new installations will not be sustained, a stable pace of 2-2.5 GW per year on average can be expected, enabling Spain to reach the government’s 2010 target of 20 GW. The size of the German annual market will continue to decrease, but it will remain the second strongest European market for the 2008-2012 period, and the biggest in terms of total installed capacity. By 2010, offshore developments will give new impetus to the German market, resulting in stronger growth. Other important markets in Europe will be France and the United Kingdom, each increasing by an average of 1 GW per year.
The North American market will grow even stronger than previously thought, led by significant growth in the US, as well as sustained development of the Canadian market. In total, North America will see an addition of 42.6 GW in the next five years, reaching 61.3 GW of total capacity in 2012. This represents an average of 8.5 GW of new capacity added every year, the bulk of which will be in the US.
These figures assume that the US Production Tax Credit (PTC) will continue to be renewed in time for the current strong growth to continue. Moreover, high level engagement of an increasing number of US states, 24 of which have already introduced Renewable Portfolio Standards, will also assure sustained growth. A change in US administration may further underpin this development.
Latin America is expected to contribute to the global total in a more substantial way in the future, mainly driven by Brazil, Mexico and Chile. By 2012, the total installed capacity in Latin America and the Caribbean will increase 8-fold to reach 4.5 GW, with an annual market of 1.4 GW. However, despite its tremendous potential, Latin America is likely to remain a small market until the end of the period under consideration, progressing towards more significant development in the next decade.
The Pacific region will see around 2.3 GW of new installations in 2008-2012, bringing the total up to 3.5 GW. While in Australia, wind energy development slowed down considerably in 2006 and 2007, the outlook for the future is more optimistic, mainly thanks to the change in federal government at the end of 2007, the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and the pledge to implement a new target for 20% of electricity to come from renewables by 2020. New Zealand, however, got new impetus with 151 MW of new installations, and many more projects are at various stages of development.
Africa and the Middle East will remain the region with the smallest wind energy development, with a total installed capacity of 3 GW by 2012, up from 500 MW in 2007. However, it is expected that market growth will pick up in the coming five years, with annual additions, reaching around 800 MW by 2012. This development will be driven by Egypt and Morocco, with some development also predicted in other North African and Middle Eastern countries.
© GWEC
The main areas of growth during this period will be North America and Asia, and more specifically the US and China.
This forecast exceeds previous estimates by GWEC, and the total installed capacity for 2010 has been corrected upwards to reach 171.9 GW (from 149.5 GW). These figures also lie above GWEC’s most ambitious scenario as outlined in the Global Wind Energy Outlook in 2006, which forecast a total global installed capacity of 221 GW in 2012, i.e. 19.3 GW below the current estimate.
The reasons for this adjustment are twofold: Firstly, both the US and the Chinese market have been growing and will continue to grow at a much faster rate than expected even a year ago. Secondly, the emergence of significant manufacturing capacity in China will have a more important impact on the growth of the global markets than originally thought. While tight production capacity is going to remain the main limiting factor of further market growth, machines ‘made in China’ will help take some of the strain out of the current supply situation.
The average growth rates during this five year period in terms of total installed capacity are expected to be 20.6%, compared with 23.4% during 2003-2007. In 2012, Europe will continue to host the largest wind energy capacity, with the total reaching 102 GW, followed by Asia with 66 GW and North America with 61.3 GW.
The additions in installed capacity every year are predicted to grow from 20 GW in 2007 to 36.1 MW in 2012, with an average growth rate of 12.4%. Considering that annual markets have been increasing by an average of 24.7% over the last 5 year, growth could be much stronger also in the future, were it not for continuing supply chain difficulties which considerably limit the growth of annual markets for the next two years. This problem should be overcome by 2010, and along with the development of the offshore market, growth rates are expected to recover in the next decade.
Asia is predicted to overtake Europe as the biggest annual market, with as much as 12.5 GW of new wind generating capacity installed during the year 2012, up from 5.4 GW in 2007. This growth will be mainly led by China, which has since 2004 doubled its total capacity every year, thereby consistently exceeding even the most optimistic predictions.
By 2010, China is expected to be the biggest national annual market globally. This development is underpinned by a rapidly growing number of domestic manufacturers operating in the Chinese market, delivering home made turbines to large scale wind energy projects. Already in 2007, 40 domestic suppliers supplied 56% of the new installations in the domestic market, up from 41% in 2006.
While China will emerge as the continental leader in Asia, sustained growth is also foreseen in India, while other markets such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will also contribute to the development of wind energy on the continent.
The European market will by 2012 have fallen to third place in terms of annual installations (10.3 GW), behind North America (10.5 GW). Overall, this means that over 71% of new installations will occur outside of Europe in 2012, up from 28% in 2004 and 57% in 2007. While in terms of total installed capacity, Europe will continue to be the biggest regional market, its share will have fallen to 42.4%.
The large scale development of offshore wind energy is further delayed and will only start to have a significant impact on European market growth towards the end of the time period under consideration. However, it is expected that offshore development will lend new momentum to growth in Europe during the next decade.
In Europe, Germany and Spain will remain the leading markets, but their relative weight will decrease as a larger number of national markets emerge on the scene. While the spectacular growth of the Spanish market in 2007 with over 3.5 GW of new installations will not be sustained, a stable pace of 2-2.5 GW per year on average can be expected, enabling Spain to reach the government’s 2010 target of 20 GW. The size of the German annual market will continue to decrease, but it will remain the second strongest European market for the 2008-2012 period, and the biggest in terms of total installed capacity. By 2010, offshore developments will give new impetus to the German market, resulting in stronger growth. Other important markets in Europe will be France and the United Kingdom, each increasing by an average of 1 GW per year.
The North American market will grow even stronger than previously thought, led by significant growth in the US, as well as sustained development of the Canadian market. In total, North America will see an addition of 42.6 GW in the next five years, reaching 61.3 GW of total capacity in 2012. This represents an average of 8.5 GW of new capacity added every year, the bulk of which will be in the US.
These figures assume that the US Production Tax Credit (PTC) will continue to be renewed in time for the current strong growth to continue. Moreover, high level engagement of an increasing number of US states, 24 of which have already introduced Renewable Portfolio Standards, will also assure sustained growth. A change in US administration may further underpin this development.
Latin America is expected to contribute to the global total in a more substantial way in the future, mainly driven by Brazil, Mexico and Chile. By 2012, the total installed capacity in Latin America and the Caribbean will increase 8-fold to reach 4.5 GW, with an annual market of 1.4 GW. However, despite its tremendous potential, Latin America is likely to remain a small market until the end of the period under consideration, progressing towards more significant development in the next decade.
The Pacific region will see around 2.3 GW of new installations in 2008-2012, bringing the total up to 3.5 GW. While in Australia, wind energy development slowed down considerably in 2006 and 2007, the outlook for the future is more optimistic, mainly thanks to the change in federal government at the end of 2007, the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and the pledge to implement a new target for 20% of electricity to come from renewables by 2020. New Zealand, however, got new impetus with 151 MW of new installations, and many more projects are at various stages of development.
Africa and the Middle East will remain the region with the smallest wind energy development, with a total installed capacity of 3 GW by 2012, up from 500 MW in 2007. However, it is expected that market growth will pick up in the coming five years, with annual additions, reaching around 800 MW by 2012. This development will be driven by Egypt and Morocco, with some development also predicted in other North African and Middle Eastern countries.
© GWEC 
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